Here are the results of Deutsche Bank’s special 2022 global market survey conducted from December 6-9 2021. It is worth noting that respondents believe that Bitcoin is more likely to halve than double next year.
What will the S&P 500 return in 2022?
“S&P 500 expectations were moderate, an average return of +4.2% in 2022 would be the third-worst of the last decade, where the average return has been +14.6% a year if you include YTD numbers for 2021. 19% thought a negative return.”
When will the Fed end taper?
“More than 80% of respondents expect the Fed’s taper to end in H1 ’22. A non-trivial amount of you (6%) think we’re set to have QE through the whole of the year.”
How many bps will the Fed hike in 2022?
“With the taper potentially out of the way, a solid majority expects two Fed rate hikes next year. This is a bit shy of market pricing, which has around 2.7 hikes.”
When will the next US recession occur?
“A majority (64%) expect the next US recession by 2024. Only 4% think we’ll have one next year although we had a high number of don’t knows.”
In 2022, Bitcoin is more likely to:
“62% of respondents think Bitcoin is more likely to halve than double. Unsurprisingly, the odds placed on Bitcoin halving increases in line with respondent’s age. 56% of under 35s think its more likely to double, only 26% of over 55s share that opinion.”